英国群体免疫策略:一场人命豪赌

2021年1月15日
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截止 3 月 16 日,中国境外确诊新冠病毒感染病例和死亡病例已经超过中国本土的数字。上周,世界卫生组织宣布欧洲已经成为了疫情“震中”。多数欧洲国家都在借鉴中国的防疫措施:大规模强制隔离。但此时,刚刚脱欧的英国似乎打算采取拖延战术,不停课、不停学,酒吧照常营业;同时更是抛出了“群体免疫”的设想,引发轩然大波。

As Europe shuts down, Britain takes a different, and contentious, approach

欧洲停摆,英国另辟蹊径引争议

英国群体免疫策略:一场人命豪赌

Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain once said his political hero was the mayor in the film “Jaws,” praising him for defying mass hysteria to keep the beaches open after a constituent is eaten by a shark.

英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊曾表示,电影《大白鲨》中的市长是他心中的政治英雄。该市长在一名选民被鲨鱼吃掉后,仍“力排众议”继续开放海滩,这一行为得到了首相的称赞。

While countries across Europe have shut schools, sporting events and even restaurants and bars, Johnson has largely kept Britain open, opting for more targeted measures like asking people with respiratory symptoms to stay home. In effect, his government has said that mass closures will not halt the outbreak, and that exposing a large segment of the population will help build immunity and limit future infections.

欧洲多国的学校、体育活动、甚至餐馆和酒吧已被叫停,与此同时,约翰逊让英国保持运转,并选择了更有针对性的方法——比如让有呼吸系统症状的人待在家里。实际上,鲍里斯政府表示大规模叫停集会活动不会阻止疫情暴发,而让大量人口暴露于病毒下会有助于建立起整个群体的免疫力,并遏制新传播。

That strategy has startled some epidemiologists, drawn criticism from a former health secretary and political ally, and prompted angry demands that Johnson’s government reveal more of its reasoning.

这一策略令一些流行病学家感到震惊,也引发一名前卫生大臣兼政治盟友的指责,同时也激起了众怒,要求鲍里斯政府公开更多这一政策背后的理由。

Herd immunity, a term usually used to refer to the way mass vaccinations can stop the spread of disease and protect people who are not immune, is not seen by many scientists as a tool to be used against the coronavirus.

群体免疫,通常指的是相当数量的人接种疫苗后可以抑制疾病蔓延并保护没有免疫力的人。而在很多科学家看来,这并不是一个可以用来对抗新型冠状病毒的手段。

“Herd immunity means 70% of people or so have been infected,” said Martin Hibberd, a professor of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “In my mind, that’s not a desirable aim. That’s a kind of consequence of the strategy.”

伦敦卫生与热带医学院的传染病学教授马丁·希伯德表示:“群体免疫意味着在那之前 70% 左右的人口要感染上病毒。在我看来,那不是个令人向往的目标,更像是这一策略带来的后果。”

And he said the government’s approach may not rely enough on testing. Without knowing whether Britain is suffering a more concentrated outbreak, as in the north of Italy, or whether its death rate is as low as it believes, it is difficult to craft the right response.

并且他还提到,政府的这条举措或许没有充分依靠病毒检测。人们还不知道英国是否像意大利北部一样,正在经历着一个更集中的疫情暴发,也不知道英国的死亡率是否如其相信的一样低,在这种情况下要制定出正确应对措施是很困难的。

“If there’s something I feel is missing,” he said, “it’s that they haven’t tested sufficiently.”

他说道:“如果说我觉得有什么疏漏的话,那么就是政府对于病毒的检测是不足的。”

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